Beware the Fakeout

As the weekend of Apr 26 2026 wraps up. The bitcoin price is skirting the breakout line. It LOOKS bullish but remember, it is in a bear flag. With that said, there are some logistics we have to consider here.

The CME Gap

There is a gap from the CME futures between 81285 and 79870 this gap seems to want to fill now, which it might as well while it is here.

Bearish Divergence on the RSI

The upward channel we have been in, has been showing bearish divergence the entire ride up. Reminiscent of the divergence I spotted at the bitcoin ATH back in October 2025, which was my signal to short.

There was even more divergence here but 2 points of the diverging have since been eliminated. However 3 points still remain (the green and red arrows) and if we see a breakout to the upside, we will be watching for a 4th point of divergence. This is an indication that the entire move is been one of exhaustion on the side of the bulls. As reported in our last post: https://blockadvisor.io/2026/04/17/the-coming-oil-crisis-is-worse-then-you-can-imagine/ this move is largely the product of Micro Strategy buying up BTC. This isn’t retail.

The macro pattern is bearish

The biggest issue going against the bullish argument is the current pattern we are in, is a textbook bearish pattern. This is a text book bear flag.

With these points considered, I am anticipating a fake out move to the upside, I am looking so see sometime between now and Monday Apr 27 2026 a move to above the breakout line to close the CME gap, it may even look to stay up there to trap longs before falling back into the bear flag and then complete the move down.

Trade with caution

Categorised in: Cryptocurrency Markets, Cryptocurrency Trading, Technical Analysis

This post was written by BlockAdvisor