The Coming Oil Crisis Is Worse Then You Can Imagine

There is a storm coming. More like a delayed effect of the war in Iran and the closing of the Strait of Hormuz. Most normal people are oblivious to what is coming and if you scale that up to the average investor who listens to politicians and celebrities. They are hanging on the words and tweets and thus the momentum of the masses and current price action. Not thinking in 4D or 5D.

I said in my last post, this war is not over. Not by a long shot. The Strait is not open, even if Trump claims it is. He is lying as he has been. I wont go down the rabbit hole on the specifics in the why’s and how’s on that as to keep this post focussed on the task at hand.

Oil and crypto.

The Strait being closed. This means that no oil tankers have been able to cross through, save some cases as I discussed in my last post https://blockadvisor.io/2026/04/15/bitcoin-is-the-bottom-in/ where a Chinese ship crossed. I wont go into the nuances of that in this post. For all intents and purposes, Iran has closed the Strait and than with the added blockade of the blockade happening by the Americans.

The oil tankers are very slow and move at the speed of a bicycle

These oil tankers move at around 25Km/h, a snails pace. So after oil is purchased, transactions have to clear, tankers have to be deployed, filled and set to sail to destinations.

Thus they take months to get here

After they set sail they take 30 to 45 days to make it to America

It’s not ready to consume when it gets here

When the oil gets to America. It is NOT refined. It still as to go to a refinery. After which it has to again be shipped to its destination to be sold and consumed.

We are all using up the oil left over from before the war happened

Right now, you go to the gas station. You are buying old gas that was purchased and sent here before the war started.

Oil is how literally everything gets to every store

When you literally buy anything at all. Oil was how it got into your hands. I don’t care what it is.

Oil is largely priced in the futures market

So when you buy gas, the deal that got that gas into your tank was made a year or more ago and the gas was sent, probably over 6 months ago.

Oil is a fungible global commodity

Local supply does not equal local low prices. Even if a country can produce it cheap, why sell to their own citizens for cheap if they can sell it on the international market for way more if there is a global crisis? Your government does not care if you are priced out of being able to drive to work. Especially in a “western nation”. Which brings me to the next point:

The crazy environmentalists actually want this to happen

Because it suits their narrative. They hate cars, they hate gas, they hate oil, they think the world can run on batteries and air which is not true. But they don’t care. The road to hell is paved with good intentions.

Prices are going to go even higher at this rate

When all the countries run out of the oil that was shipped to them before the war started, the oil we are all using right now. Prices are going to sky rocket even more. If this war drags on longer it will be even worse. Because even IF a deal can be made, they still have to close the deal, ship the oil (again taking over a month) refine it, ship it again so that it can get to you.

We might see obscene prices

Right now the oil charts are sitting close to the covid highs. The prices at the pump are not far off from the high. We spiked to 116 a barrel. If this war drags on, shortages turn to droughts, countries start bidding up oil like crazy and are already rationing it and this chart breaks out of the top white line with a continuation? Maybe we see 200 a barrel? Forget it. The world will be stopped out again covid lockdown style. With the caveat of no food on the shelf at the grocery store. Which leads to my next point.

We may see energy “lock downs”

Yes this can happen. It has happened before. We saw this in the 1970s with odd/even license plate days for gas. If prices hit a breaking point, “work from home” mandates could return, not for health, but to keep the power grid from collapsing and ultimately the crazy environmentalists mentioned earlier will love this.

What does this have to do with crypto?

Bitcoin is struggling here. It is fighting for dear life to go higher and higher but look at the divergence. Every higher high on price is printing a lower low on the RSI. Something isn’t right here.

When the cease fire was announced we rallied. I stated in my last post, this is premature as this was on Trumps word which means nothing. Yes nothing. After the crypto scams, claiming he was FOR crypto but delivering nothing on that but rugs, not delivering on the full, un redacted Epstein files, not delivering on “no new wars”. Again his word means nothing. The premature pump, built on the shaky cease fire, when both groups are still at an impasse on terms over all. Who the hell is buying?

Michael Saylor is..

He has been aggressively buying up BTC through MicroStrategy (MSTR). He has been the major buying force behind this pump. Dumping over a billion into buying up 17,585 BTC in the first 2 weeks of April 2026. In other words, all of this:

There is no retail here. No volume, no nothing. This whole upside out of the red band was all him. Hence the divergence.

Look at these 2 charts. Top one is the BTC CME Futures. Bottom one is the regular BTC/USD chart. Both have a bear flag (Bearish Continuation pattern)

The price WANTS to touch the top blue line (in the 1st chart) top white line (in the second chart) but its struggling to even do that. Saylor alone is fueling this rally and like a rocket that does not have enough fuel, it is struggling to reach escape velocity. It’s running out of gas.

Now add all of this up.. Does this equate to moon? End of bear market? If this war continues and gas prices make another leg up, cost of everything goes up even more? Is the current rally in BTC reflective of this?

I think not.

Unless we get The Americans and Iran coming out singing Kumbaya together with a new deal for peace and the war being over. Price going up isn’t adding up and a lot of bulls are going to get caught in this snare.

Be cautious, I’m not saying we are going down to the abyss here. Im actually thinking we are CLOSE to the bottom. But we are not there yet. I think there is one more leg down with a possible quick wick to a lower touch point on an old support. But all in all, I think the geopolitical situation and MicroStrategy pumping the price is cause for caution for the retail investor.

Categorised in: Cryptocurrency Markets, Cryptocurrency Trading, Fundamental Analysis, Technical Analysis

This post was written by BlockAdvisor